This winter, record-breaking rainfall brought California’s long-lived drought closer to its final hour.
However, it also raised the probability of large wildfires this summer, particularly those fueled by tall grasses that are thriving now but will start drying out soon, fire officials say.
The potential for large fires “is expected to remain near normal through the spring, but once fine fuels dry out, there will likely be a spike in grass fire activity,” according to a report by the National Interagency Fire Center.
Saying the Pacific storm track has shifted north, the agency’s predictions for Southern California this spring are slightly below-normal precipitation, slightly above-normal temperatures that may fluctuate more than usual and fewer Santa Ana wind events than normal. Summer monsoons may also bring less rain than average.
Since Oct. 1, many locations across Southern California have received triple the rainfall that they got during the same time frame the year before, according to National Weather Service data. Downtown Los Angeles has received 19 inches this year, compared to 6.5 inches the year before. Santa Ana’s 17 inches this year is up from 4.5 inches last year. Ontario and Riverside, which got 6 and 5 inches last year, respectively, have gotten 15 and 13 inches this year.
“All of the regional rain has fed vegetation, increasing its production,” Cal Fire spokeswoman Capt. Elizabeth Brown said.
“We are seeing normal levels in temperatures but near the middle of summer, usually near the end of July to the middle of August, when the region really begins to heat up and Santa Ana winds funnel through, expect to see a rise in wildfires,” she said.
“We don’t expect to see a severe monsoon season due to an El Nino weather pattern … but the tall grass will eventually cure (dry out) and become thick fuel for wildfires,” Brown added.
While spring isn’t expected to be as rainy as winter, “We’re still not out of our wet season,” Weather Service weather specialist Stuart Seto said. “We’re expecting at least another inch of rain this weekend.”
The current forecast calls for showers to arrive Friday evening in Southern California and continue Saturday. Temperatures will drop, but not enough to bring much snow to the mountains; the snow line will be about 8,000 feet.
All of the winter rain means moisture levels in brush and shrubs should stay “well above normal for several more weeks,” the fire prediction report says.
Seasonal grasses often start drying out in April.
“The sheer height and density of this year’s grass crop may keep fuels greener for a longer period of time than usual,” the report says, “but … Southern California will probably see these grasses cured out in all but the shadiest, most sheltered places by the middle of May.”
While fire officials are predicting an abundance of grass fires this summer, they still want Southland residents to be cognizant that major forest fires are always possible.
“We’ve had good rainfall throughout the winter,” Brown said. “But everyone needs to be aware that California is still seeing drought-like conditions.”
Dense stands of trees in the San Bernardino National Forest compete for a limited water supply while being besieged by bark beetles that kill trees by boring in and sucking out the nutrients, San Bernardino County Fire Department spokeswoman Tracey Martinez said.
Those trees, lacking significant moisture, burn more easily. Trees tend to die from the top down, increasing the likelihood that flames will jump from treetop to treetop faster than firefighters can keep up.
“We are now seeing fire activity that gives residents less time to evacuate their homes,” Brown said. “This is why homeowner preparedness is key to a good defense. Firefighters will provide the offense.”
The San Bernardino County Fire Department has 700 firefighters ready to respond 24 hours a day, along with bulldozers, hand crews and several air resources, officials said.
“We are not seasonal and we don’t downsize,” Martinez said. “We bring in additional staffing when fire conditions warrant based on heightened red-flag warnings and increased fire dangers.”
“Wildfires are a year-round reality in San Bernardino County,” Martinez added. “This means that both firefighters and residents have to be on a heightened alert for the threat of wildfire.”
Fire is, and always has been, a natural part of the California landscape. Wildfires are now a year-round reality in many areas, and that means residents need to be proactive to protect their homes.
All local fire authorities promote the wildfire action plan “Ready, Set, Go!”. The program educates residents on how to protect themselves before, during and after a wildfire event.
The plan informs residents to create a defensible space between a fire threat and their home and offers plenty of advice people may need if a fire approaches homes.
